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Premier League · Matchday 1 · 2026/27
Everton vs Crystal Palace Prediction & Tips
Premier League Matchday 1 · Saturday 22 August 2026 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Everton v Crystal Palace
Sat 22 Aug 2026 · 15:00 BST · Premier League MD1 · Source imagery: stadium hero
Everton and Crystal Palace open their Premier League season at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday 22 August — two sides who spent 2025/26 in the mid-lower reaches: Everton 13th, Palace 15th. The most interesting read is the shot grid: Ismaila Sarr averages 3.07 shots per game, and 2.65 across his last 20.
Our verdict: Sarr Over 2.5 shots at 2.15 is the best bet, with Beto anytime scorer at 2.80 and Jean-Philippe Mateta at 2.65 the goals-side reads. A probability play, not a promise: no such thing as a sure thing. 18+, bet responsibly.
Match details & how to watch
| Competition | Premier League 2026/27, Matchday 1 |
| Date | Saturday 22 August 2026 |
| Kickoff | 15:00 BST (14:00 UTC) |
| Venue | Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool |
| TV (UK) | Check listings — not confirmed at capture (18 Aug) |
| Referee | Not published at collection — confirm closer to kickoff |
Fixture details from the data pack, captured 18 August. TV picks can shift the slot, so confirm the broadcaster's listings before the game. Premier League 2026/27 hub →
Form & context going in
All numbers are 2025/26 — no 2026/27 minutes exist yet, and Player Trends windows had not posted as of 18 Aug, so none are quoted.
Everton — a one-man attack
Beto at 0.77 goals per game is the only Everton player above 0.30, priced 2.80, with the side closing 2025/26 in poor form (L D D L L).
Palace — the best strike pairing of the three Saturday games
Palace finished 15th on 45 points but carry the strongest board here: Mateta at 0.78 goals per game (2.65, the game's shortest price) and Sarr at 0.58 with a 92-minute average.
Anytime-scorer odds snapshot (odds captured 18 Aug)
Prices below were captured from the data pack on 18 August 2026 and are re-verified on publish day — any moved line (line change or ≥0.10 price move) is patched before kickoff. Match markets (1X2, over/under 2.5, BTTS, corners, cards) were not posted at capture, so no prices are quoted — form-only framing. Player Trends hit-rate windows had not posted either, so none are quoted.
| Player | Team | Anytime-scorer odds (books) | Goals/g (season) | Goals/g (last 20) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Mateta | Crystal Palace | 2.65 (6) | 0.78 | 0.38 |
| Beto | Everton | 2.80 (6) | 0.77 | 0.42 |
| T. Barry | Everton | 3.20 (6) | 0.52 | 0.30 |
| I. Sarr | Crystal Palace | 3.75 (6) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| K. Dewsbury-Hall | Everton | 4.00 (6) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| C. Alcaraz | Everton | 5.00 (4) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
The shots board is where the headline sits: Sarr Over 2.5 shots at 2.15 (6 books) — 3.07 shots/g season, 2.65 last 20, the strongest shots read across the three Saturday 15:00 games. One negative read on the goals board: Alcaraz (5.00) shows 0.00 goals per game with minutes not published — priced on position, not output; never backed from this data.
Tip breakdown — where the data pack points
One box per tip: the line, the evidence from the pack, the probability framing, and the risk that breaks it. Prices were captured 18 August and are re-verified on publish day; match markets (1X2, BTTS, corners, cards) were not posted at capture, so none are quoted. Lineup and injury news are not in the pack either: every tip is conditional on team news. All tips →
Ismaila Sarr Over 2.5 shots @ 2.15
Tip 1 of 3- Line
- Sarr to have Over 2.5 shots; best price 2.15 at capture (18 Aug, 6 books).
- Evidence
- 3.07 shots per game over the season window and — the key number — 2.65 across his last 20, with a 92-minute average. He is the only major attacker on Saturday's three 15:00 boards whose recent rate clears the line.
- Probability framing
- 2.15 implies roughly 46%; the season rate points to a stronger lean, and the last-20 figure is what separates this from the fade-prone boards elsewhere on the slate.
- Risk note
- shot volume is not shot quality — if Palace sit deep away from home, his attempts can come from range.
Beto anytime scorer @ 2.80
Tip 2 of 3- Line
- Beto to score anytime; best price 2.80 at capture (18 Aug, 6 books) — Everton's shortest price.
- Evidence
- 0.77 goals per game over the season window with 2.49 shots per game and goals in four of fifteen visible starts as the home No. 9.
- Probability framing
- 2.80 implies roughly 36%; the season rate is better, though the last-20 average (0.42) pulls the honest figure closer to the price.
- Risk note
- the recent window is half the season rate — a value read with a variance caveat, not a lock.
Jean-Philippe Mateta anytime scorer @ 2.65
Tip 3 of 3- Line
- Mateta to score anytime; best price 2.65 at capture (18 Aug, 6 books) — the shortest price on the game.
- Evidence
- 0.78 goals per game over the season window — the best rate on either team — with a 70-minute average and a brace cell.
- Probability framing
- 2.65 implies roughly 38%; the season rate supports a lean, but the market has him shortest for a reason — market-leader backing, not an edge.
- Risk note
- his last-20 average (0.38) is half the season figure and 70 minutes is the lowest of the three. Small stake.
Best bets summary
| Pick | Market / line | Probability framing | Staking note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarr Over 2.5 shots | 2.15 | 3.07/g season, 2.65/g last 20 — the slate's strongest shots read | Flat 1 unit; never more than 2% of bankroll |
| Beto anytime scorer | 2.80 | 0.77/g season; Everton's only attacker above 0.30 | Flat 1 unit |
| Mateta anytime scorer | 2.65 | Market leader; 0.78/g season, faded last 20 | Small stake |
No such thing as a sure thing — these are probability leans from a pack captured 18 August, before any 2026/27 football. Keep stakes small and flat, never chase a loss, and treat every pick as conditional on team news.
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Responsible gambling
Betting involves risk. There is no such thing as a sure thing — every tip on this page is a probability call, and variance means even the best-researched picks lose. Only bet what you can afford to lose, set a limit before you start, and never chase losses. 18+ (UK) / 21+ (US). If gambling stops being fun, get help: BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org) / GamCare (gamcare.org.uk) in the UK; 1-800-GAMBLER in the US. Play responsibly. Our full stance →
FAQ
When is Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Saturday 22 August 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, 15:00 BST (14:00 UTC), Premier League Matchday 1.
What is the best bet for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Sarr Over 2.5 shots @ 2.15 (3.07/g season, 2.65 last 20) leads, with Beto @ 2.80 and Mateta @ 2.65 as scorer reads — a probability call, not a guarantee.
James Keogh
Founder & Lead Analyst, SoccerTips.com
James writes the site's match previews and tip breakdowns from the data pack for each fixture — probability framing, variance risk and bankroll discipline first. No hype, no "sure things".