Fulham host Manchester United at Craven Cottage in Sunday's late Premier League slot, a 16:30 BST kickoff. The pack's biggest measured gap between how often a line has cleared and what the market charges for it sits on the home side.
Every number below is from the fixture's data pack: season and last-20 shot output, average minutes, and the captured price.
Team news and context
Peter Bankes takes the game. The capture carried the shot grids for both squads and the appointments, but not lineups or availability — so nothing of that kind is claimed.
It is the last of the three Sunday Premier League kickoffs, which means the longest runway for the market to move after the earlier games. The prices shown are the captured ones, re-verified on the day.
The data angle
Iwobi cleared 1.5 shots in 9 of the 12 rendered games — 75% — against a 2.40 price implying only 42%. That is the largest gap between measured rate and implied probability anywhere on Sunday's card, and he plays an 86-minute average role to produce it.
The supporting numbers are more modest: a 2.04 season average and 1.80 across the last 20 sit only just above the 1.5 line. This is a consistency read rather than a volume read — he clears a low line often, rather than piling up shots.
On the other side, United's volumes are close to fairly priced: Cunha over 2.5 at 1.95 was cleared in 7 of 13 (54%) against 51% implied, and Fernandes over 2.5 at 2.00 in 9 of 18. No false value is claimed for them; they are simply the nearest thing to a second supported line.
Risk and variance
Twelve rendered games again: the 75% is a rate on a short window, and a midfielder's shot count swings with game state. A Fulham side chasing the game produces more volume than one protecting a lead.
A 2.40 price that implies 42% still loses more often than it wins. Small, flat stakes — no chasing a blank into the next fixture.
Verdict
Consistency lean: Iwobi over 1.5 shots at 2.40 — cleared in 9 of 12 rendered games (75%) from an 86-minute role, against a price implying about 42%, the widest measured gap on Sunday's board. A 12-game window, so keep the stake small and flat.
Probability lean, not a promise. Prices move — the figure quoted is the one captured and re-verified for this fixture.
