Leeds United host Crystal Palace at Elland Road in a 14:00 BST kickoff, one of three Premier League games starting together on Sunday afternoon. The only genuinely supported line in this capture sits with the away side.
The pack renders shot output for both squads, season and last 20, plus the average minutes each player carries. It does not carry lineups, injuries or table positions from this capture — so no claim of that kind appears below.
Team news and context
Adam Herczeg takes the fixture. The pack's Leeds-side shot volume was thin at capture, which is an honest finding rather than a gap to paper over: with no well-supported home line, the away player is the read.
Palace rotate up front — the alternative striker's 62-minute average says so — and that is the live risk behind any attacker's number here. Team sheets land inside the hour before kickoff and a changed line is patched on the day.
The data angle
Sarr cleared 1.5 shots in 10 of the 12 rendered games — 83% — against a 1.75 price implying 57%. He carries the biggest season average of any player on either side at 3.49 shots per game (2.67 across the last 20) from a 93-minute workload, the heaviest on the fixture.
The caveat is the window. Twelve rendered games is not a 20-game rate, and a run inside a short sample flatters any percentage. The honest reading is a high rate on a small sample priced at 57% — still a lean, but thinner evidence than the headline number suggests.
The pack's other captured Palace lines are much weaker: Nketiah over 1.5 at 1.67 rests on three rendered games, and the 2.5 lines on offer sit above their owners' output.
Risk and variance
A 12-game window is the first thing to discount here, and rotation is the second: if the minutes load shifts, the volume shifts with it. A single blank in a 62-minute outing is a normal outcome, not a broken read.
Stake small and flat on a sample this size. Probability and variance, never a prediction of the result.
Verdict
Shots lean: Sarr over 1.5 shots at 1.75 — cleared in 10 of 12 rendered games (83%) from the fixture's heaviest minutes load, though that rate rests on a 12-game window rather than a full 20. Probability lean on a short sample, not a promise.
Probability lean, not a promise. Prices move — the figure quoted is the one captured and re-verified for this fixture.
