Nashville SC host Chicago Fire at Geodis Park — 02:30 BST Sunday, 9:30 PM ET Saturday. The supported line here comes from the away side, and the price is the generous part of it.
All figures are from the captured data pack: season and last-20 shot output, average minutes and posted prices. Player-level lines only.
Team news and context
Lorenzo Hernandez is the appointment. Shot grids for both squads were captured; lineups and availability were not, so none is asserted.
Kickoff is in the early hours of Sunday UK time. The price below is the captured one and is re-verified before kickoff, with any moved line patched on the day.
The data angle
Zinckernagel cleared 2.5 shots in 10 of the 15 rendered games — 67% — against a 2.10 price implying only 48%. He also cleared 1.5 in 13 of the 15, from a 3.05 average across the last 20 and 3.46 for the season on an 81-minute load.
That is a genuine gap on both the rate and the averages: the volume is above the line, and the price is set as though it is below it. It is the second-highest ranked fixture in the pack.
The pack's other lines are the worst-priced in the fixture. Nashville's 3.5 lines sit well above their owners' output — Mukhtar's was cleared 5 times in 18, Surridge's 4.5 line once in 11 — so the away player remains the read. Lod over 1.5 at 1.83 cleared 7 of 11 and is the one secondary line worth noting.
Risk and variance
Fifteen rendered games is a workable window, but not a long one, and a 2.5 line is a threshold: an early change or a Chicago side managing a lead can take the volume away.
Even a 67% rate misses a third of the time. Small, flat stakes; bankroll discipline over any single matchday.
Verdict
Value lean: Zinckernagel over 2.5 shots at 2.10 — cleared in 10 of 15 rendered games (67%) from a 3.05 last-20 average, against a price implying 48%. The best measured gap on the fixture; probability, not a promise.
Probability lean, not a promise. Prices move — the figure quoted is the one captured and re-verified for this fixture.
