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Major League Soccer · Midweek · 19 Aug 2026
Red Bull New York vs Nashville Prediction & Tips
MLS midweek · Wednesday 19 August 2026 · 19:30 ET · Red Bull Arena
Red Bull New York v Nashville
Wed 19 Aug 2026 · 19:30 ET · MLS midweek · Source imagery: stadium hero
Wednesday 19 August, 19:30 ET at Red Bull Arena: New York Red Bulls (W L L W L) host Nashville SC (D L W L W) in MLS midweek.
Our verdict: Mukhtar over 3.5 shots at 2.25 is the headline play — Nashville's top-volume shooter at 3.03 shots per game this season (2.63 across his last 20). Jimenez over 2.5 at 2.25 backs the home side's most aggressive shooter; Ruvalcaba over 2.5 at 1.67 is the steady anchor. No such thing as a sure thing — probability calls, not promises. 21+, bet responsibly. More match previews →
Match details & how to watch
| Competition | Major League Soccer (MLS) — midweek matchweek |
| Date | Wednesday 19 August 2026 |
| Kickoff | 19:30 ET (23:30 UTC) |
| Venue | Red Bull Arena, Harrison, NJ |
| Referee | Not published at collection |
| TV (US) | Check listings — confirm on publish |
Fixture details from the data pack, captured 18 August 2026. TV slots can move — confirm listings before kickoff. Neither side has momentum you can trust — the shot board carries this preview. MLS hub →
Form snapshot
Nashville's D L W L W is a win-in-bursts profile, and their shot creation runs through Mukhtar. Red Bull New York's W L L W L is a yo-yo — home pressure converts one week and collapses the next, which is exactly when shot leaders matter. Neither side has momentum to trust; the shot board carries this preview.
Odds snapshot (odds captured 18 Aug)
Prices below were captured from the data on 18 August 2026 (Nashville values re-captured same day) and are re-verified on publish day — MLS lines move fast, and any MOVED line (line change, or a price shift of 0.10 or more) is patched before kickoff. Match markets (1X2, BTTS, over/under 2.5) were not posted for MLS at capture — none are quoted.
| Player | Line | Price | Shots/g (season) | Shots/g (last 20) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mukhtar | Over 3.5 | 2.25 | 3.03 | 2.63 |
| Jimenez | Over 2.5 | 2.25 | 3.35 | 2.00 |
| Ruvalcaba | Over 2.5 | 1.67 | 3.05 | 2.42 |
Tip breakdown — where the data pack points
Every tip below is a player-level shot line — the data pack carries no MLS match-result prices, so no 1X2, BTTS or over/under-2.5 claims appear anywhere in this article. All prices were captured 18 August and are re-verified on publish day; any moved line (≥0.10) is patched before we publish. All tips →
Mukhtar over 3.5 shots @ 2.25 (the best bet)
Tip 1 of 3- Line
- Mukhtar over 3.5 shots, priced 2.25 at capture (18 Aug — re-captured values).
- Evidence
- Mukhtar averages 3.03 shots per game this season (2.63 across his last 20) at 89 minutes — Nashville's top-volume shooter, with two goals in the recent grid.
- Probability framing
- The 3.5 line sits just above his 3.03 season mark, which is why the price is a value-length 2.25 rather than a heavy short — the market respects his volume but pays for the ceiling. Against a patchy home side this is the fixture's headline case.
- Risk note
- His base rate is closer to three shots than four, so the over 3.5 needs a plus-four night. A reach on volume, not a guarantee.
Jimenez over 2.5 shots @ 2.25 (the swing)
Tip 2 of 3- Line
- Jimenez over 2.5 shots, priced 2.25 at capture (18 Aug).
- Evidence
- Jimenez averages 3.35 shots per game this season (2.00 across his last 20) at 71 minutes — the home side's most aggressive shooter.
- Probability framing
- The 2.5 line sits under his season average, and 2.25 pays you for the gap between his baseline and the reduced recent window. Swing upside on a player whose volume is real when the minutes are.
- Risk note
- His recent 20 at 2.00 and a 71-minute profile mean the over needs a spike night. Rotation can kill the case.
Ruvalcaba over 2.5 shots @ 1.67 (the anchor)
Tip 3 of 3- Line
- Ruvalcaba over 2.5 shots, priced 1.67 at capture (18 Aug).
- Evidence
- Ruvalcaba averages 3.05 shots per game this season (2.42 across his last 20) at 83 minutes — the dependable high-minute shooter in the Red Bull attack.
- Probability framing
- 1.67 implies about 60%, and 2.42 across the last 20 at full minutes is a reasonable floor — you buy reliability at a shorter price and get exactly that.
- Risk note
- If his minutes dip or the attack stalls, the floor moves with them; the watch-list tip, not the headline.
Best bets summary
| Pick | Line / price | Probability framing | Staking note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mukhtar over 3.5 shots | 3.5 @ 2.25 | 3.03 season / 2.63 last-20 at 89'; ceiling line on a volume main | Flat 1 unit — never more than 2% of bankroll |
| Jimenez over 2.5 shots | 2.5 @ 2.25 | 3.35 season / 2.00 last-20; needs a ceiling night | Small stake |
| Ruvalcaba over 2.5 shots | 2.5 @ 1.67 | 3.05 season / 2.42 last-20; steady anchor | Small stake |
No such thing as a sure thing — these are probability leans from a pack captured 18 August, and every line is re-verified on publish day.
Affiliate disclosure: some bookmaker links on this page are affiliate links — we may earn a commission at no cost to you. It never changes our analysis: every tip traces to the data pack. Learn how to read a bet builder →
Responsible gambling
Betting involves risk. There is no such thing as a sure thing — every tip on this page is a probability call, and variance means even the best-researched picks lose. Only bet what you can afford to lose, set a limit before you start, never chase losses, and bet only with licensed, regulated sportsbooks available in your state. 21+ only (18+ where state law allows). If gambling stops being fun, get help: 1-800-GAMBLER (US). Play responsibly. Our full stance →
FAQ
When is Red Bull New York vs Nashville SC?
Wednesday 19 August 2026 at Red Bull Arena, Harrison, NJ, kickoff 19:30 ET (23:30 UTC) — MLS midweek.
What is the best bet for Red Bull New York vs Nashville SC?
Mukhtar over 3.5 shots @ 2.25 on his 3.03-per-game volume is the headline; Jimenez over 2.5 @ 2.25 is the swing. Both are probability calls, not guarantees.
Why are the tips all player-level?
The data pack carries no MLS match-result prices, so no 1X2, BTTS or over/under-2.5 lines appear — every tip is a player shot line traced to the pack.
James Keogh
Founder & Lead Analyst, SoccerTips.com
James writes the site's match previews and tip breakdowns from the data pack for each fixture — probability framing, variance risk and bankroll discipline first. No hype, no "sure things".